Larry Cuban points out that some education reformers are a little too sure of themselves.
Listen to Michael Mann, a climatolgist at Penn State University who talked about the science behind global warming and rising sea levels.
Any honest assessment of the science is going to recognize that there are things we understand pretty darn well and things that we sort of know. But there are things that are uncertain and there are things we just have no idea about whatsoever. (Nate Silver, The Signal and the Noise, 2012, p. 409).
Ah, if only federal and state policymakers, researchers, and reform-minded educators would see the “science” of school reform in K-12 and higher education in similar terms. “Science” is in quote marks because there is no reliable, much less valid, theory of school reform that can predict events or improvements in schools, classroom instruction, and student performance.
Still, for K-12 children and youth there are “things we understand pretty darn well.”
*We understand that socioeconomic status of children’s families has a major influence on students’ academic achievement.
*We understand that a knowledgeable and skilled teacher is the most important in-school factor in student learning.
Then there are “things that we sort of know.” Such as some schools with largely low-income, minority enrollments out-perform not only similarly-situated schools but schools that serve families from middle- and upper-middle income schools.
Or that curriculum standards can frame what students have to learn but the tests–and the rewards and penalties tied to those tests–measuring whether students have reached those standards have a powerful influence on what teachers teach and what students learn.
And there are “things that are uncertain” in schooling children and youth. Consider that over the past quarter-century, the dominant goal for public schools has been college preparation. This is a political decision driven by fear of unskilled or semi-skilled U.S. graduates unable to work in ever-changing companies which erode the nation’s place in global competition. The primary way of insuring that administrators and teachers achieve that goal has been regulatory structures of federal and state accountability accompanied by high-stakes incentives and penalties. This also is a political decision for the same reason given above.
Uncertainty has arisen because some parents, researchers, teachers, and policymakers have contested both goals and structures. Why? Because many high school graduates have failed to meet college admission standards. Because many who do go to college drop out after a year or two. Because college costs climb annually and student indebtedness increases. Because K-12 curriculum standards and accountability rules have narrowed what is taught to that which is tested.